Weekly Outlook: October 16 - 20
The dollar fluctuated against a basket of the other major currencies on Friday after mixed consumer inflation data clouded the outlook for another rate increase by the Federal Reserve in the coming months.
Consumer prices rose 0.5% last month after advancing 0.4% in August the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists had forecast a 0.6% increase.
It was the largest increase in eight months, but was mainly driven by soaring gasoline prices after hurricanes hit the southern U.S. Underlying inflation remained subdued.
The report came after the minutes of the Fed's September meeting published on Wednesday showed "many participants expressed concern that the low inflation readings this year might reflect not only transitory factors, but also the influence of developments that could prove more persistent."
The data tempered expectations that the Fed will hike interest rates in December for a third time this year.
Expectations that U.S. rates will rise help support the dollar by making U.S. assets more attractive to yield-seeking investors.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was little changed at 93.62 late Friday, after falling to a more than two-week lows of 92.59 earlier in the session.
The dollar ended lower against the yen, with USD/JPY down 0.43% to 111.80.
The euro was a touch lower, with EUR/USD dipping to 1.1822 in late trade after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the euro zone still requires substantial monetary stimulus as inflation remains muted.
Sterling gained ground amid hopes that Britain could be offered a two-year Brexit transition deal. GBP/USD advanced 0.2% to 1.3287 late Friday and ended the week up 1.7% after suffering its worst week in more than a year the previous week.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking at U.S. housing data to assess the economic impact of the hurricanes which hit the southern U.S. last month.
Thursday’s data on third quarter Chinese growth will be closely watched for insight into the health of the world’s second largest economy.
Tuesday’s UK inflation data will also be in focus amid speculation over a possible rate hike by the Bank of England as soon as next month.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, October 16
China is to release inflation data.
Canada is to report on foreign securities purchases and the country’s central bank is to publish its business outlook survey.
The U.S. is to release data on manufacturing activity in the New York region.
Tuesday, October 17
New Zealand is to release data on consumer inflation.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.
The UK is to release inflation data. Later in the day, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to appear before the Treasury Select Committee, in London.
The ZEW Institute is to report on German economic sentiment.
The euro zone is to release revised inflation data.
The U.S. is to release figures on industrial production and import prices.
Wednesday, October 18
ECB President Mario Draghi is to deliver the opening remarks at the banks conference in Frankfurt.
The UK is to publish its latest employment report.
The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.
Thursday, October 19
Australia is to publish its latest jobs report as well as private sector data on business confidence.
China is to release data on third quarter GDP growth along with reports on fixed asset investment and industrial production.
The UK is to report on retail sales.
The U.S. is to release the weekly report on jobless claims and data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
Friday, October 20
The UK is to release data on public sector borrowing.
Canada is to report on retail sales and inflation.
The U.S. is to round up the week with data on existing home sales