AUD/USD heavy on 0.77 handle and capped by 200-D SMA
AUD/USD traded in a 30 pip range in NY after being capped by the 55-D SMA in European trade. Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.7765, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7777 and low at 0.7765.
AUD/USD is slowly drifting to the downside as we enter Tokyo, trading in a wider consolidation between 0.7760 lows and 0.7759 recent highs and nestled around the100 and 10-hr SMA meeting ay 0.7769.
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The Antipodeans were mostly defensive overnight weighed by a lower CRB and falling metal prices in European trade that the Aussie barely recovered from. Yesterday, the RBA minutes basically repeated that the next move in rates was likely a hike, although the markets are more focussed on the developing risks to such an outlook. (Chinese GDP was around expectations at +6.8% and there was a little reaction but IP was a bit worse than expected, evened out by better retail sales).
AUD/USD is running out of momentum in the top end of the narrowing and descending range, capped by the 200-D SMA and set up for a much lower low on the daily sticks. On the wide, analysts at Commerzbank explained that the convergence of resistance here between the 200-day ma with the top of the channel at 0.7820 and the 38.2% retracement at 0.7831, coupled with a TD perfected set up, suggests that we should see the cross continue to fail here. "Key support remains the 78.6% retracement at 0.7637 and the 2016- 2018 uptrend line at 0.7628. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7744 offers initial support," the analysts added.