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EUR/USD geared for a run south of 1.1300

11/12/2018, 11:40:39 AMMarket Analysis
EUR/USD geared for a run south of 1.1300

The EUR/USD is trading near 1.1325 after taking an early-Monday plunge into near-term lows as the broader market opens the new trading week with risk appetite notably skewed into the downside, and the 1.1300 major handle is going to be a key point of contention heading through the week.

This week opens on a quiet note, and the economic calendar is all but empty for the Euro's opening sessions, and US markets enjoying a Thanksgiving long weekend, but the mid-week promises plenty of action with German and EU-wide GDP figures on Wednesday, with Eurozone inflation numbers due at the end of the week as well.

Riskier FX pairs are struggling to find a foothold after getting knocked lower on the market open, fueled largely by weekend headlines that the two sides of Brexit negotiations continue to drift further apart, and self-imposed deadlines of presenting workable deals continue to slip by with no progress seen. Italy also remains a point of contention on the Euro, and Italy's current economy minister will be looking at revising Italian growth projections lower in an effort to reach middle ground with the European Commission which remains irate at Italy's spend-heavy deficit budget, but the reach across the aisle could fall on deaf ears is the commission asks Italy how they expect to close the current budget deficit with lower growth expectations.

EUR/USD levels to watch

Odds of a bearish continuation are on the rise, according to FXStreet's own Valeria Bednarik: "the daily chart shows that, after reaching the 38.2% retracement of its September/October decline mid-week, the pair retraced quickly, increasing chances of a bearish breakout in the upcoming days. In the same chart, the 20 SMA acted as dynamic resistance throughout the week, now accelerating south below the larger ones and converging with the 23.6% retracement of the mentioned decline around 1.1420. The Momentum indicator stabilized within negative territory, while the RSI heads south, currently at 37, keeping the risk skewed to the downside. In the 4 hours chart, and for the shorter term, the bearish potential is also strong, as the 20 SMA changed course and now heads slower alongside with the 100 SMA in the 1.1400 area, while technical indicators lost downward strength near oversold readings at the end of the day as a result of decreasing volume, far from indicating downside exhaustion."

Support levels: 1.1300 1.1265 1.1230

Resistance levels: 1.1370 1.1420 1.1460